Value in bets: what is it and how to find it

Value betting or value betting is a systematic approach to sports betting. A value bet is a bet that has a greater payback percentage than the expected risk. Often players are deceived by false myths and need a systematic approach. So, how to determine a favorable rate. First of all, you need to understand the difference between a team’s chances of winning and the corresponding odds.

The odds are the price a bookmaker is willing to pay for winning bets, called the payout. The bookmaker sets the price depending on the probability of the team winning. The lower the ratio, the higher the price. For example, odds of 2.4 means that the bookmaker will pay out 2.4 times the bet the player placed, with a net return of 1.4 times the original bet.

How to Calculate the Implied Probability of Odds

Chance chance is 100/chance. Let’s give some examples. Odds of 2 means there is a 50% chance of winning. Why? Because 100/2 = 50. Odds of 2.4 have a higher payout but means that the probability of winning is lower: 41.6% because 100/2.4 = 41.6

Fair value and real probability

Do the odds reflect the true probability of a team winning? No. Unfortunately, it’s not that easy. The probability that we have just calculated is just the implied probability of the odds, i.e. the price that the bookmaker is willing to pay.

It is correct to say that it is calculated based on the odds of winning, but it also takes into account the bookmaker’s business model, which sets its odds to make them attractive to bettors, and the market behavior that makes prices go up or down. over time.

However, if you want to have a mathematical approach to betting, you should also learn about fair and theoretical odds, which represent the actual likelihood of a team winning.

How to determine value bets

A value bet is simply a bet where the probability of a given outcome is higher than the odds offered reflect. This means that the expected return is statistically positive.

Value betting, therefore, means betting only when your chances of winning are higher than what the bookmaker suggested. Here is the process:

1. Calculate the implied probability.
2. Calculate the true probability and therefore the fair odds.
3. Apply the expected value formula and calculate the expected return.

If the expected return is positive, the rate has been found.

Example

Let’s say Juventus plays with odds of 3.6 to win. The proposed odds of 3.6 imply a 27.7% chance of Juventus winning (100/3.6 = 27.7%). However, according to the calculations, the chances of Juventus winning are about 45%, so the fair value of the bet is 100/45 = 2.2. Here is the first value bet. Further it is necessary to follow the same logic.